Michael Jordan

Michael Jordan

Wednesday, 4 June 2014

Importance of Statistic Analysis

Sports analysis are probably the most evident way in which we use math in basketball. However, some ignore the importance of these mathematical uses. This science helps athletes and coaches know what game structures work better for their team, overall, and against opponents; as well as being vital for personal and collective improvement. Most of this maths are based on percentages, fractions and probability. For example, statistical analysis of NBA games show that the four most important keys for team success in basketball are:
1) Shoot a high field goal percentage (40%): The benefit of a high shooting percentage is obvious. NBA teams with the higher field goal percentage won 79% of the games.
The shooting factor is measured using Effective Field Goal Percentage (eFG%). The formula for both offense and defense is (FG + 0.5 * 3P) / FGA
2) Do not commit turnovers (25%): Turnovers are important because if team cannot shoot, never mind scoring. The NBA team with fewer turnovers wins about 58% of the time.
The turnover factor is measured using Turnover Percentage (TOV%). The formula for both offense and defense is TOV / (FGA + 0.44 * FTA + TOV).
3) Get offensive rebounds (20%): Offensive rebounding can make up for poor shooting percentage, particularly as shots off of offensive rebounds are more likely to result in scores than initial field goal attempts. Offensive re-bounders increase their field goal percentage from 41% to 48% and points per play from about 0.80 to 0.94. In the NBA, if shooting percentages are about equal, the team with more offensive rebounds wins 63% of the games.
The rebounding factor is measured using Offensive and Defensive Rebound Percentage (ORB% and DRB%, respectively). The formula for offense is ORB / (ORB + Opp DRB), while the formula for defense is DRB / (Opp ORB + DRB).
4) Get to the foul line frequently (15%): Interestingly, it is more important for teams to get to the foul line frequently than it is for them to hit a high percentage out of their foul shots. The NBA team that commits fewer fouls wins 67% of the games.
The free throw factor is a measure of both how often a team gets to the line and how often they make them. The formula for both offense and defense is FT / FGA.
Teams that consistently win basketball games do at least three of these things well. If a team doesn't shoot well, it must do the other three things better. Having this numbers is of vital importance to coaches and players during their training and practices.

Source: Basketball-Reference.com